The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, up from 1.9% projected in March. Strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and resilient supply chains have supported trade despite disruptions caused by the West Asia conflict.

According to the WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, global merchandise trade grew by 3.5% in the first half of 2026. The organisation expects trade volumes to expand by a further 4.1% in 2027.

AI Investment Supports Global Trade

Growing investment in AI has become a major driver of international trade. Semiconductors, servers and other AI-related products accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026.

Trade in these products increased by 67% year-on-year, highlighting the rising demand for advanced technology and digital infrastructure.

Supply chains have also adapted to geopolitical disruptions. Businesses have switched suppliers and redirected shipments through alternative ports and trade routes. In addition, global container throughput increased by 3.9% through July.

West Asia Conflict Disrupts Energy and Services Trade

Despite stronger merchandise trade, the West Asia conflict continues to affect energy supplies, shipping routes and international services.

West Asia’s merchandise exports are forecast to fall by 17.2% in 2026. Its services exports are projected to decline by 10.3%.

The WTO has also lowered its forecast for commercial services trade growth to 3.3% in 2026, compared with 4.8% in its earlier outlook. Higher freight costs, shipping disruptions and weaker international travel have affected the sector.

International tourist arrivals declined by 0.8% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, digitally delivered services remained resilient, with computer services exports recording strong growth.

Asia Leads Merchandise Export Growth

Asia is expected to lead regional merchandise export growth, with exports projected to rise by 9.9% in 2026. This outlook highlights the region’s important role in global manufacturing and international supply chains.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala described the performance as evidence of trade resilience. She also emphasised the importance of maintaining a rules-based trading system and ensuring that the benefits of emerging technologies, including AI, reach more economies.

The revised forecast signals stronger global trade momentum than previously expected. However, geopolitical tensions, energy supply risks and disruptions to shipping remain important challenges for businesses and exporters worldwide.