Indian cotton prices are likely to remain under pressure as global prices ease, new-crop arrivals increase and mill demand stays subdued.

Cotton futures for December delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), New York, have fallen to around 80.13 cents per pound from about 93 cents at the end of August.

The weaker global trend has also affected the domestic market. Cotton prices have declined to around ₹64,500–65,500 per candy of 356 kg, compared with recent highs of nearly ₹70,000.

Cotton Corporation of India auction prices for the 2025-26 crop have also fallen by around ₹1,200 per candy over the past two days. Lower cottonseed prices are adding further pressure to raw cotton prices.

Rising Crop Arrivals

Daily arrivals of the new crop are estimated at around 50,000–55,000 bales, with each bale weighing about 170 kg. Arrivals are expected to increase sharply during October.

Market participants said mills are currently buying slowly, with many spinning mills holding stocks for around one to one-and-a-half months. Cottonseed prices have also declined by around ₹300–400 per quintal.

The market is therefore moving into a supply-driven phase. The pace of new-crop arrivals, mill demand and government policy on duty-free cotton imports will remain key factors for prices.

At the same time, lower rainfall could limit the 2026-27 cotton crop. Industry estimates suggest production may fall by around 10% from the previous year due to reduced rainfall during the June-September period.

This potential production decline could provide some support to cotton prices later. However, near-term market conditions are expected to remain influenced by rising arrivals, subdued demand and global price trends.